Key Points• Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.• At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or […] Read more »
Abortion Has Never Been Just About Abortion
As recently as 1984, abortion was not a deeply partisan issue. “The difference in support for the pro-choice position was a mere six percentage points,” Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, told me by email. “40 percent of Democratic identifiers were pro-life, while 39 percent were pro-choice. Among […] Read more »
The California Recall Was a Warning
Governor Gavin Newsom of California defeated yesterday’s recall election by a large enough margin to squash earlier Republican threats to challenge the results no matter the outcome. But the proliferation of those allegations of voter fraud before the election, including ungrounded claims from former President Donald Trump that the contest […] Read more »
Newsom’s winning recall strategy offers a playbook for Democrats in 2022
… The biggest lesson from this race is that California should immediately change its recall law, which mandates a recall election for a statewide elected official if just 12 percent of voters sign a petition supporting it. But I think there are also lessons from California for Democrats as they […] Read more »
The anomaly of Republican unanimity
… I’m not here to defend the putative Democratic dissenters, with whom I personally disagree. But senators and House members differing with their party is neither unusual nor anomalous. Rather it is the norm. … Yet today, not one single Republican seems willing to support President Biden’s economic recovery effort. […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Most Americans feel democracy is under attack in the US
Most Americans feel democracy is under attack in this country (56%), according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, as 51% say it is likely that elected officials in the US will successfully overturn the results of a future election because their party did not win. Nearly all Americans […] Read more »