Democrats better hope things are darkest before the dawn because they now face a series of challenges that combine to offer a bleak near-term future for their party. As I argued three weeks ago in this column space, two trends were preparing to collide in Virginia — Democrats’ growing strength […] Read more »
Bill Clinton Saved His Presidency. Here’s How Biden Can, Too.
Swing voters in two blue-leaning states just sent a resounding wake-up call to the Biden administration: If Democrats remain on their current course and keep coddling and catering to progressives, they could lose as many as 50 seats and control of the House in the 2022 midterm elections. There is […] Read more »
Biden has reached a critical moment in the battle for blue-collar voters
Just as Democrats face another round of hand-wringing about their erosion among working-class and rural White voters — after last week’s daunting election results in Virginia and New Jersey — the long-delayed congressional approval of a historic infrastructure plan will test President Joe Biden’s central theory on how the party […] Read more »
Peak Polarization? The Rise of Partisan-Ideological Consistency and its Consequences
This paper presents evidence from American National Election Studies surveys showing that party identification, ideological identification and issue positions have become much more closely connected over the past half century. As a result, the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican identifiers has widened considerably. … These findings indicate that polarization […] Read more »
2021 shows Republicans shouldn’t fear high voter turnout
The Republican Party did very well on Tuesday. Beyond its win in the Virginia gubernatorial election, it came quite close to capturing the New Jersey governor’s mansion. And the GOP did it in a way that might scare some Democrats: higher voter turnout. At least in this era, Republicans don’t […] Read more »
Democrats fear political wipeout in next year’s midterms
The results out of Virginia and New Jersey on election night, along with the rejection of progressive ideology in deep-blue jurisdictions across the country, came as a rude awakening for Democrats. While party leaders were already preparing for a difficult midterm election, the scope of Republican gains in suburbanized, Democratic-friendly […] Read more »