Whether you go by the holiday or meteorological calendar, summer is on! That doesn’t only mean heat, it also means road trips to a lot of Americans. But over the last few months, folks planning out their vacations have been in for a rude awakening over the price of gas. […] Read more »
A tale of many Americas
Next week Congress will hear witness testimonies and present learnings from the select committee’s January 6th investigation into the storming of the Capitol and the attempt to disrupt and overturn the certification of the 2020 presidential election. The question of election legitimacy has become a firebrand issue and rallying call […] Read more »
Even in a Great Year, Republicans’ Winnable Seats Are Limited
Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president […] Read more »
No, Ann Coulter, I Am Not Responsible for the ‘Great Replacement’ Theory
Ann Coulter, in so many words, thinks that I am responsible for the mass shooting in Buffalo in mid-May. Not me alone. After the shooting, Coulter wrote a column dismissing the idea that Republican politicians and commentators had popularized the “Great Replacement” theory, a conspiracy theory that the young, white […] Read more »
How much are polls misrepresenting Americans?
Declining response rates for polls mean we must rely on the shrinking minority of Americans that agree to be interviewed to represent the broader public. Josh Clinton finds that Democrats were more likely to agree to be interviewed than Republicans or Independents in 2020. Common corrections could not compensate, as […] Read more »
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis
Key Points• Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.• Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.• Based on the fundamentals of […] Read more »