For the last couple of years, I’ve stressed that when it comes to campaign polling, it’s more important to focus on the vote share each candidate is getting than it is to obsess about the margin that separates the two candidates. The fact that a candidate is ‘ahead’ of another […] Read more »
Oz had Trump’s endorsement, but didn’t win in Trump country
After more than two weeks of counting and recounting in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate Primary, TV host and physician Mehmet Oz emerged victorious. But one analysis of the primary vote suggests the newly-minted GOP nominee may need to craft a different strategy for his fall campaign against Lt. Gov. John […] Read more »
Christian nationalism on the rise in some GOP campaigns
… Christian nationalism is emerging alongside and in some cases overlapping with other right-wing movements, such as the conspiratorial QAnon, white supremacy, and denialism over COVID-19 and the 2020 election. Christian prayers and symbols featured prominently in and around the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection there. … […] Read more »
Democrats Biggest Opponent In 2022: Economic Headwinds
… In a year where the environment is relatively neutral, the specific candidates matter more. But, in a year like this one, where more than 70 percent of Americans think the country in on the wrong track, where inflation is at a 30-40 year high, and where a stubbornly strong […] Read more »
Voters Have Come To Accept, or Even Demand, the Unorthodox
It seems that almost every week we see primary-election outcomes that not too long ago would have seemed highly unlikely, if not downright preposterous. Candidates in both parties who would have been seen as unorthodox, eccentric, or even extreme a decade or two ago are now winning nominations in unusual […] Read more »
Authenticity
Congratulations to John Fetterman on winning the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania. And kudos to you for being declared authentic. Being authentic has long been a positive description in politics and is increasingly rare. … I have long believed that voters seeing individual candidate personality is critical to the candidate winning. […] Read more »