If there is a path to the White House for Donald Trump, it almost certainly will follow roads like Interstate 75, 80, and 94 that rumble through the big battleground states across the Rust Belt. Large Rust Belt prizes such as Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be indispensable […] Read more »
Bush and Rubio might swing Florida for the GOP. It probably wouldn’t matter, though.
… Consider this: four potential Republican nominees come from sizable swing states that could – who knows! – swing the presidential election. Florida is home to Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, Wisconsin to Scott Walker and Ohio to John Kasich. Only one potential Democratic candidate hails from a traditional swing […] Read more »
Pennsylvania: Approval rating for Attorney General Kathleen Kane at a dismal 26%
Kathleen Kane deserves neither re-election nor impeachment, a poll on the embattled state attorney general shows. By slim margins, pluralities of Pennsylvania voters who have made up their minds reject either course. Pennsylvanians also disapprove of the job Kane is doing after a year of intense scrutiny, rough headlines and […] Read more »
Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless
I never pay too much attention to early polls, since snapshots of a race more than 18 months before Election Day can be misleading. And political parties ought to be careful about crowing too loudly about early polls for fear someone will look too closely into them. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, […] Read more »
The States That Will Pick the President: The Rust Belt
With Democrats consistently strong along the East Coast and West Coast, Republicans dominant in the South and much of the Great Plains, the two parties now often fight most fiercely over a band of burly states that run west from Pennsylvania into Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and then Iowa. … […] Read more »
Blaming Gerrymandering Has Its Limits, as Pennsylvania Shows
There is no question that Republicans have a huge advantage in the House. But there is a big debate about whether it’s because of partisan gerrymandering or because Democrats are gerrymandering themselves into urban, heavily Democratic districts. One reason the debate continues, despite a near consensus among political scientists, is […] Read more »