“Everyone in Washington wants to write that this election is over,” cautions respected pollster Peter D. Hart, that Republican Donald Trump — after six weeks of highly public unforced errors — has effectively shattered his chances of winning the White House. Hart, after conducting a two-hour focus group of 11 […] Read more »
When Conventional Wisdom Gets Ahead of the Voters
There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state Senate candidates. But, if you think that a few weeks of bad headlines […] Read more »
The Clinton Campaign Seems To Think Pennsylvania Is In The Bag
Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight […] Read more »
Measuring the Trump Effect
At the moment, Donald J. Trump casts a long shadow over this once-thriving community, where steel mills, furnaces, bridge works, brickyards, textile plants and boiler shops provided steady jobs for the city’s working and middle classes. … Pottstown, whose retired and laid-off steelworkers, machinists and tool and die makers have […] Read more »
Trump’s appeal stretches to suburbs that had been trending blue
… Across the country, Trump has performed best in the sorts of places Democrats could afford to lose: landslides in Appalachia or in white counties of the deep South. To win the White House in November, he must extend his appeal to unlikely states and unlikely parts of those states. […] Read more »
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2016 Election
When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for […] Read more »