Seven new battleground polls, seven states where Hillary Clinton holds a lead against Donald Trump. Those are the results from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, which found Hillary Clinton ahead in Iowa (by four points), Ohio (by five), Florida (by five), North Carolina (by nine), Pennsylvania (by 11), […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Missteps Risk Putting a Ceiling Over His Support in Swing States
DOYLESTOWN, Pa. — Donald J. Trump has been waiting for months for a poll in which he cracks 50 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton in any of his top battleground states: Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio or Pennsylvania. “It’ll happen after the conventions,” he said in a July 6 […] Read more »
Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall
At FiveThirtyEight, we generally prefer state polls to national polls. So far, though, we haven’t had much of them to work with. If you’re getting dozens of national polls every week, but just a smattering of state-level surveys — and that’s what we’ve been getting — you’re better off inferring […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Increases in Three Battleground States
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in three key battleground states after the conclusion of the political conventions, including in all-important Ohio, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
Pennsylvania holds keys in Clinton-Trump tilt
National and state polls conducted after the national party nominating conventions in July picked up a surge by Democrat Hillary Clinton. Pennsylvania is no exception. In the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll, Clinton holds an 11 percent lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely voters, 49 percent to 38 […] Read more »
Pennsylvania Is Always Purple (And Other Electoral College Observations)
Over the weekend, the New York Times published an article titled “Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go,” which suggested that the electoral college was effectively tilted in favor of Hillary Clinton this year. The piece referred to a “daunting electoral map” producing a “narrow” and “precarious” path […] Read more »