Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, […] Read more »
What Our Poll Shows About Impeachment Views in 6 Swing States
Voters in the states likeliest to decide the 2020 presidential election support the impeachment inquiry that House Democrats began last month, but a majority still opposes impeaching President Trump and removing him from office, according to a New York Times/Siena College survey. In the six closest states carried by the […] Read more »
A strange bellwether: Pennsylvania’s House
The five competitive 2020 House races in Pennsylvania read like an abridged version of the national House race. They include the suburban battlegrounds, the exurban battlegrounds, a Romney-Clinton districts, an Obama-Trump district, a Republican in a seat that Clinton carried and a Democrat in a seat Trump carried. The results […] Read more »
The America That Isn’t Polarized
… Americans are living through an unusual political moment. Their political institutions are the most divided they’ve been since the period after the Civil War, according to some political science research. But how divided are Americans themselves? By some measures, around half of the population is either disengaged or has […] Read more »
Democrats Lead Trump in Key Swing States
Each quarter this year, we have surveyed 2020 general election voters to gauge public opinion heading into 2020. This month we surveyed general election likely voters in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan through a combination of live landline, live cell, and text messaging between September 7th and […] Read more »
The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here’s why.
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory. Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President […] Read more »