Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?

… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »

Great Lakes states voted against Hillary Clinton; not for Trump

A lot of things had to fall right for Donald Trump to win the presidency in 2016, but the biggest key was his ability to win key northern states that had voted Democratic for several cycles. In particular, Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic in every […] Read more »

Americans Want Winner of November Election to Pick Ginsburg’s Replacement

This release features findings from a national online survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted September 19-21, 2020. • A majority say the election winner should nominate Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement.• Mitch McConnell is unpopular and a majority oppose him bringing a nominee for a vote in the Senate before Election […] Read more »