… It is fair to say that the outcome of the debate defied conventional wisdom. Indeed, drawing on political-science research, most journalists had confidently predicted that the first presidential debate would have a minimal polling impact. What went wrong? Part of the answer, of course, is that Mr Romney was […] Read more »
Romney erases Obama’s lead nationally after first debate
Mitt Romney now holds a narrow advantage over Barack Obama in the race for the White House — 46 percent to 45 percent, if the election were held today, according to a Fox News national poll of likely voters released Wednesday. That’s a six-point turnaround and a three-point “debate bounce” […] Read more »
Swing-State Married Moms Trust Romney on Economy, Obama on Women
Married mothers in two competitive presidential states rate Republican nominee Mitt Romney better at dealing with the nation’s economic challenges than President Barack Obama, even as they side with the incumbent on reproductive rights and say he best understands their problems and struggles. A Bloomberg News Swing Voter poll in […] Read more »
Why Arizona may be the surpise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
… New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate. A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher […] Read more »
Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President […] Read more »
Who are the ‘undecided’ voters? And what the heck are they waiting for?
“Saturday Night Live” has mocked them. Tony Kornheiser has said he “loathes” them. Partisans — and many political reporters — wonder just what the heck they are waiting for. The “they” of course refers to that sliver of people who say they remain undecided in the 2012 presidential race. With […] Read more »