It is easy to get confused in the final week of a presidential campaign, and we are at that point in Campaign 2012. There are conflicting polls in battleground states, unexpected moves by the campaigns into new states, widely varying assessments from the partisans in both parties and persistent spinning […] Read more »
Storm Response Earns Obama Praise Amid the Election’s Deadlock Drama
Likely voters of all political stripes give broadly positive ratings to Barack Obama’s response to the devastating storm that smashed the East Coast this week. Whether it makes a difference in the long-deadlocked presidential election is another question. [cont.] Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
Pundits versus probabilities
… The most well-known quantitative analyst of politics is Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight blog now appears on the New York Times website. … Unfortunately, Silver has become the target of a vitriolic backlash from innumerate pundits whose market dominance is under threat as well as ill-informed conservative commentators who think […] Read more »
In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage
Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. […] Read more »
Anger Aside, Voters Favor D.C. Status Quo
Despite dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction and Washington’s performance, voters lean toward retaining the status quo in Washington, the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll has found. This final Congressional Connection Poll before the Nov. 6 election found that among likely voters, President Obama has reopened a slim advantage […] Read more »
What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote
Mitt Romney and President Obama remain roughly tied in national polls, while state polls are suggestive of a lead for Mr. Obama in the Electoral College. Most people take this to mean that there is a fairly good chance of a split outcome between the Electoral College and the popular […] Read more »