There is a peculiar divergence between various public opinion polls at the moment. On the one hand, Mitt Romney has built a narrow but durable lead in the national polls, averaging around a 1 percent advantage over the last three weeks. This has cheered the hearts of conservatives everywhere. Yet, […] Read more »
A Partisan Advantage for Obama?
As I pointed out at the end of August, I see political and economic context of the election as favoring Mitt Romney, though not overwhelmingly so. … But one thing I find interesting is that despite a reversal of fortunes in the last few weeks, there seems to be a […] Read more »
How Will The Undecideds Break? Another Take
There’s been a lot of speculation recently about how the remaining undecided voters will break over the next few days. … Even with the sampling noise in our data and other associated uncertainties (is the model appropriately capturing all the drivers of choice? Who will really turn out and vote?), […] Read more »
The other 2012 election contest: which pollster and polling method will win?
People like me are always looking into the polling data to see what has worked well in the past to correctly forecast election results for the future. The problem is that there are a number of polling methods and ideas that worked well in prior years, yet are in opposition […] Read more »
Race for the White House a dead heat
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters. Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate […] Read more »
Obama gets boost in swing-state polls
President Obama got welcome final-week polling news Wednesday as new surveys in several keenly contested states showed him holding or expanding a lead. … The raft of new numbers bolstered the campaign narrative from the president and his aides, who claim the electoral college math doesn’t add up for Romney […] Read more »