… Obama’s reelection depends largely on whether he can maximize votes from friendly blocs of Hispanics, African-Americans, college-educated women, and young people—only this time as a graying incumbent weighed down by a dubious economic record instead of buoyed up as a hope-and-change-preaching senator making history. Demographic trends are moving in […] Read more »
Who Is Really Winning This Race?
… At this point, five days before the election, you are better off looking at the polls – state and national – which are probably going to be more accurate than structural models devised several months ago in predicting the winner (even if they are going to be far less […] Read more »
In a Twist, Obama the Democrat Is Depending on Ohio
… For the first time in memory, it is the Democratic, not the Republican nominee, counting on Ohio as his firewall in an achingly close campaign. Republicans almost always have viewed Ohio as a linchpin in their race to 270 Electoral College votes. This year, holding Ohio is the centerpiece […] Read more »
Obama Can Thank Early Negative Ads for His Advantage
America faces two general elections. One is occurring in seven or so swing states, where voters have experienced saturation advertising—mostly negative—since mid-June. … In the states that have experienced the minimalist campaign, the popular-vote numbers are even or maybe up for Republican nominee Mitt Romney by a bit. … But […] Read more »
In Defense of the Undecided
… It is possible that political signals like party mean less to late-deciders because politics is like a foreign country to them. But another possibility is that some of their ideas conflict with the positions their putative party takes. Here’s an example. [cont.] Lynn Vavreck, UCLA (NYT) Read more »
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted […] Read more »