We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a […] Read more »
Talking About Trump May Pay Off on Television, But . . .
It’s getting increasingly annoying to watch people who ostensibly know a lot about politics going on television and saying things that I am reasonably sure they don’t really believe. Lately, it has been analysts talking up Donald Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination. What viewers are hearing from pros […] Read more »
Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire
Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State. What’s more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New […] Read more »
First Look at FiveThirtyEight’s Primary Forecast
ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire on “This Week.” ABC News ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos Read more »
Fox News Poll: Sanders up by 13 points in New Hampshire
Bernie Sanders is ahead of Hillary Clinton by a 50-37 percent margin among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. That’s according to the latest Fox News poll, released Friday. Martin O’Malley receives three percent. CONT. Dana Blanton, Fox News Read more »
The predictive value of GOP presidential polls
… Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach has suggestive implications about who is likely to be the […] Read more »