The ‘Rotten Equilibrium’ of Republican Politics

One clear lesson from the elections of 2016 and 2018 is that President Trump and his fellow Republican candidates win where white voters are losing ground. Take a look at the 2018 congressional results in the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania, states that provided the Electorate College votes crucial to Trump’s […] Read more »

Republicans seek to expand Trump’s support for 2020, but will the president cooperate?

Republican allies of President Trump are researching new ways to position him in the run-up to the 2020 election, particularly among the college-educated suburbanites who voted for Democrats in November because of their disapproval of the president. One polling effort is intended to test messages and policy initiatives for the […] Read more »

Behind G.O.P. Power Play in Midwest: Fear of Losing a Gerrymandered Advantage

… The ongoing legislative maneuvers in Michigan and Wisconsin are part of a broader war for power in the Midwest, a politically prized region for both parties — but especially for Republicans, who are trying to dilute Democratic control ahead of bigger battles. The G.O.P., which lost the House in […] Read more »

Democrats’ Burgeoning Chances in the Rust Belt

For Democrats looking ahead to 2020, the most encouraging trend in 2018 may be the party’s renewed competitiveness in key races across all five Rust Belt states that keyed Donald Trump’s unexpected victory two years ago. Yet even that potential recovery can’t erase the magnitude of the challenge Democrats will […] Read more »