A lot of things had to fall right for Donald Trump to win the presidency in 2016, but the biggest key was his ability to win key northern states that had voted Democratic for several cycles. In particular, Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic in every […] Read more »
PollerCoaster2020: Biden Is Winning, Here’s How to Pad His Lead
The story of the 2020 election is often told through the perspective of three groups: Obama-Trump voters, suburban voters that have soured on Trump, and die-hard Trump supporters who frequent diners visited by New York Times political reporters. Don’t get me wrong, at least two of these groups are critical. […] Read more »
The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost
Minnesota’s Iron Range. Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties. Suburban Charlotte. The city of Philadelphia. Each is a shorthand for the building blocks of victory in the swing states that will determine the presidential election. At the traditional, post-Labor Day start of the fall campaign, POLITICO is zeroing in on eight critical battlegrounds […] Read more »
Here are the Trump battleground states that Harris can help Biden retake
It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back […] Read more »
Surveys in three key battleground states show Biden leading Trump
New surveys in three key battleground states show former Vice President Joe Biden with solid leads over President Donald Trump as both candidates head into their nominating conventions later this month. Biden’s advantage in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is largely the result of consolidating the Democratic vote and attracting support […] Read more »
Summer ad spending shows Trump in retreat, defense in key states
If you want to know what a campaign really thinks about its chances, you don’t listen to what it says, you watch where it puts its money. This week’s Data Download is looking at how the President Donald Trump and Joe Biden teams (and their main affiliated outside groups) have […] Read more »