The background music of my life is the steady drumbeat of tweets about how Hillary Clinton stole the presidential primary from Bernie Sanders. … The allegations are remarkably consistent. They go like this: Mr. Sanders did better in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Therefore, […] Read more »
Here’s why pollsters and pundits got Brexit wrong
Late Thursday night, voters in the English city of Newcastle chose to remain in the European Union. Pollsters had predicted that voters there and elsewhere in Britain would have voted Remain by a considerable margin. In the end, Remain won by the tiniest of margins, taking 50.7 percent of the […] Read more »
Brexit polling: What went wrong?
… Had Yougov done well, I could use them as an example of the success of MRP, and political polling more generally, so I should take the hit when they fail. It looks like Yougov was off by about 4 percentage points (or 8 percentage points if you want to […] Read more »
A study of Brexit
Investors around the world just bet billions on British polls. “A rally in European stocks Monday propelled the regional benchmark to its best daily percentage performance in nearly 10 months after polls showed support for the U.K. remaining in the European Union gaining ground,” MarketWatch proclaimed Monday. It’s a fascinating […] Read more »
Introducing the YouGov Referendum Model
There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. … In this article, […] Read more »
The Correlates of Latino Political Behavior
With both parties’ presidential nomination campaigns settled, the 2016 general election match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump is coming into focus. Central to these discussions is the support that the candidates are likely to draw from Latino voters. Yet, as has been the case in recent election […] Read more »