The online survey industry has created a complicated and opaque web of data outsourcing that can make it nearly impossible for researchers to know where their data come from and creates conditions that incentivize distracted and insincere survey responses. We began wondering about survey data sourcing when we noticed that […] Read more »
More Republicans have died of COVID-19. Does that mean the polls are off?
Doctors and demographers recently noticed another tragic example of how polarization shapes America: The pandemic has killed more people in the nation’s Republican enclaves than its Democratic strongholds. They explain the gap by pointing to Republican resistance to vaccines and the GOP’s more cavalier approach to combating the virus in […] Read more »
Why polls may be underestimating Republicans
Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only […] Read more »
Polling on Issues People Know Little About Creates Illusion of Public Opinion
… While the general presidential approval rating provides some relevant insight into public opinion, the same cannot be said for presidential approval questions that focus on individual issues. … Media polls get virtually all respondents to answer a question, regardless of whether they actually have an opinion, by the way […] Read more »
Biden’s team takes a page from Trump: Pushing back on poor poll numbers
Donald Trump’s self-worth has long been defined by numbers. His net worth (which he would often inflate). The ratings for “The Apprentice.” And once he entered politics, polling. … In June 2020, Trump offered one of his more unusual responses to a bad poll. CNN and its polling partner SSRS […] Read more »
Failure and success in political polling and election forecasting
… The recent successes and failures of pre-election polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that the polls sometimes do so well? Should we be concerned about political biases of pollsters who themselves are part of the educated […] Read more »