Before diving into observations about the last Tuesday’s results, as a pollster, I feel compelled to write this first post-election column about the survey research misses. First, put the errors in perspective. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
The Importance of Embracing Ambiguity — and What Comes Next for Polling
Instead of offering definitive answers to the country’s biggest questions, the 2016 election results provoke even larger questions. How could the forecasters and the campaigns themselves been so wrong? What and maybe who did all the pollsters miss? Was there a late breaking voter phenomenon that was hard to measure? […] Read more »
In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research.
What can we learn about the 2016 election from the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll (about which more below)? Two things stand out. On Nov. 8, Latino turnout was up significantly compared with 2012. And Latinos gave a substantial share of their votes — we estimate 79 percent — to […] Read more »
Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls
In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to […] Read more »
Epic fail: How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts
… While pollsters correctly gauged the sentiment of most slices of the electorate, they underestimated Mr Trump’s appeal to working-class whites. Although it was clear that he would run up the score with these voters, he managed to exceed even pollsters’ rosy expectations for him: projected to win them by […] Read more »
How do you feel? Don’t ask.
What the fuck just happened? First, the near-miss on Scottish independence, then the 2015 general election, Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader, Brexit, Corbyn’s re-election and now Donald Trump’s victory. Well, I’ve been working through a theory for a while now. I suspect some of you have been doing the […] Read more »