… That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016. Wisconsin is a good example. On paper, the Republican senator Ron Johnson ought to be favored to win re-election. The […] Read more »
Entering polling’s silly season…
Soon there will be a plethora of “horse race” polls in various races and nationally, likely showing divergent results. That is a seasonal phenomenon plus the one-two punch of the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade and the compelling hearings by the House Select Committee on the January 6 […] Read more »
Primary polls can often vary widely, so proceed with caution
Last week, a poll on the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary field showed that conservative commentator Tudor Dixon had vaulted into an 11-point lead in the race. The advantage, which was outside the poll’s margin of error, suggested she was the clear front-runner. This week, another poll of the race showed […] Read more »
Here’s what the post-Roe polling says about voters’ top issue
Few individual news events have the power to singlehandedly rearrange voters’ electoral priorities. But if anything held that possibility, it might have been the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade. … What voters care about, and how those priorities influence their decisions, is too complicated to be fully […] Read more »
Q&A: Author Elliott Morris on Public Opinion Polling in the United States and Its Role in Our Democracy
Data journalist Elliott Morris, U.S. correspondent for The Economist, talked about the history of political polling in the United States going back to the 19th century and the development and use of polling since then. He is the author of Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need […] Read more »
Will Biden and Trump face off again in 2024?
… First-term presidents are usually their party’s nominee in the next election. Aside from that, however, conventional wisdom suggests it’s too early to say who the 2024 contenders will be. We’re not so sure. We believe that even this early, we can gain insight into who the nominees will be […] Read more »