It was a good year for polls. This time, they got the basic story of the election right: a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. And on average, the final polls were closer to the results than any election in a decade. Best of all, the polls were relatively unbiased, […] Read more »
Pollsters tried to learn from 2016 mistakes. Will the 2018 midterms be different?
The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday’s midterm election. Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Old cries of “don’t believe the polls” became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls “fake” […] Read more »
The polling miss that defines 2018 might not be the one from 2016. It may be the one from 2017.
… In 2016, one of the problems in state polls was that Trump voters turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. In 2017, one of the problems with the polls in Virginia was that Democrats turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. Those Democrats elected not only Northam […] Read more »
What It Takes to Make 2.7 Million Calls to Voters
When Monica Bouchard, 66, calls voters across the country, sometimes hundreds within a few hours, she makes sure to use “the best voice possible”: kind, clear, engaging and anything but monotonous. … Ms. Bouchard is one of more than 1,000 people telephoning voters ahead of the 2018 midterms as part […] Read more »
How polling has changed since the 2016 election
Democratic Congressional candidates now hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist. But can polls be trusted? In 2016, polls in key states showed Hillary Clinton winning handily. Donald Trump won all three. Judy Woodruff discusses with NPR’s Domenico Montanaro […] Read more »
Sorry, pundits, but you have no clue what will happen on Tuesday
… Polls remain our best tool for reading the electorate and discerning important trends, which is why journalists, handicappers, and campaign managers depend on them so much. Entire media companies are devoted to explaining them. But polls are not predictive. They are wobbly around the margins. Pollsters, the honest ones […] Read more »