Science requires data, and survey research is one important means of gathering it. Surveys provide a scientific way of acquiring information that is used to inform policy decisions, guide political campaigns, clarify the needs of stakeholders, enhance customer service, help society understand itself, and improve the quality of life in […] Read more »
Lessons in polling from Elon Musk
Taking any Twitter poll seriously is a bad idea. Making business decisions via Twitter poll is an even worse idea. Elon Musk seems determined to do both, polling Twitter users on policy changes and even his status at the company (although as of this writing, he has not clearly acknowledged […] Read more »
The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself
In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. […] Read more »
2022 Monmouth University Poll Recap
At the Monmouth University Poll, we have never shied away from taking responsibility when we’ve been wrong, so it only seems fair to recap when we got it right as well. However, more than taking a bow, there are lessons to be learned about election polling from our 2022 experience. […] Read more »
Planet Money tries election polling
It’s another election cycle and many are wondering: Will the polls miss again this year? Because it’s true, polling has gotten a lot tougher these days. People aren’t picking up the phone. Nobody wants to talk to pollsters. It’s becoming a crisis for the polling industry. Today on the show, […] Read more »
4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling
Pollsters should worry that their profession might soon be regarded as more like astrology than political science. Reasons to take polls with a large grain of salt abound. First, the nagging sense that pollsters are “missing” MAGA voters remains, as was the case during both the 2016 and 2020 elections. […] Read more »