For Americans just tuning in to the fever dream of election season, the past week has been a confusing swirl of conflicting poll results. … At this time of year, the difference between poll results can be explained by everything from who is being surveyed (are they “likely” voters or […] Read more »
Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones
… Although there are exceptions on either side, like the Gallup national tracking poll, for the most part Mr. Obama seems to be getting stronger results in polls that use live interviewers and that include cellphones in their samples — enough to suggest that he has a clear advantage in […] Read more »
How party ID became partisan — and why it shouldn’t be
After the release of any — and every — swing state or national poll these days, the Fix Twitter feed and email inbox immediately fill up with messages that are some variation on this: “Party ID skewed! D+8!” That’s political shorthand for a belief that the party identification in the […] Read more »
Party ID and Ideology Breakdowns
Over the course of the next several weeks, there will be many national and state surveys released. In order to help people make sense of this data, we have compiled party identification and ideology results from exit polls in recent elections. [cont.] Stephanie Slade, Winston Group Read more »
Why weighting polls for party identification is wishful thinking
Those who follow my writing know that I am not a fan of weighting polls to a predetermined party identification (ID). The reason is that questions on party ID can be skewed by question ordering and political environment. … Some Republicans have been up in arms this year over what […] Read more »
New Frontiers In Polling
A program of NDI’s International Leaders Forum. Featuring Peter Hart, Jon Cohen, Whit Ayres and Stan Greenberg. Moderated by Katty Kay. Filmed at the Belk Theater in Charlotte, NC, on Sept. 5, 2012. National Democratic Institute Read more »