The latest Gallup USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll. This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen. Only 2 years ago the […] Read more »
Out of State, Out of Sample?
… Without getting actual location data from telephone companies or sampling cellphones nationwide, pollsters are forced to ignore people who move into a given state with an out-of-state cell number. … Pew Research notes that approximately 10 percent of cellphone respondents live in a different state than their area code […] Read more »
Why most polls done in Nevada are garbage
A few words about all of these polls on the presidential race in Nevada: Don’t believe them. Sound familiar? Yes, I was telling you the same thing two years ago when every poll (almost) showed Sharron Angle would be the next U.S. senator from Nevada. That didn’t happen, and all […] Read more »
Five myths about political polls
When Mitt Romney was trailing in public polls before the first presidential debate — particularly in swing states — his campaign manager was dismissive, contending that, according to his camp’s superior internal data, the race was “inside the margin of error.” After the debate, when Romney grabbed the advantage in […] Read more »
Gallup: Survey Methods, Complex and Ever Evolving
… For our final month of political surveys before the Nov. 6 election, we are now conducting a separate daily tracking program consisting of interviews with a random sample of 500 U.S. adults each night. … As has always been the case, we do not attempt to weight the composition […] Read more »
Beware of ‘likely voter’ label
The polls are changing. As we enter the home stretch, public pollsters are transitioning their samples from registered voters to so-called “likely voters.” The general impression this conveys is that polls are suddenly becoming more accurate. Readers should be skeptical. The science behind the selection of “likely” voters is soft. […] Read more »