Even before 2020 polling errors became evident, analysts wondered if we could trust the polls. After the election, concerns spiked — overall errors were even larger than in 2016. Frank Luntz went so far as to declare, “the polling profession is done.” We disagree. We think polling has a strong […] Read more »
New Democracy Corps National Phone Poll: “Fixed” To Accommodate Trump’s Right-Wing Populism
Our co-founder, Stanley Greenberg, learned in polling for campaigns in Austria, the U.K., and Israel to respect the role of working class, nationalist voters led by a right-wing populist leader running against the liberal establishment and their ability to upset everyone’s expectations for Election Day. He also learned how to […] Read more »
Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories.
… This is a relatively new phenomenon, but pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse — that is, particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters’ opinions are not reflected in survey data. This was especially relevant in understanding Trump’s support, too, as […] Read more »
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is […] Read more »
An Interview with Murray Edelman on the History of the Exit Poll
In this column, survey methodologist Murray Edelman, one of the creators of the “Exit Poll,” speaks with Harvard Data Science Review’s Xiao-Li Meng and Liberty Vittert. The invention of political polling provided one of the most visible and high-stakes roles for the use of sampling in the history of statistics. […] Read more »
Are Americans More ‘Pro-Life’ or ‘Pro-Choice’ on Abortion? Question Wording Makes a Difference. So Does Timing.
In a recent article in National Review, Ramesh Ponnuru cites Gallup data suggesting that women are more “pro-life” than “pro-choice.” The article was prompted by a claim from Meghan McCain, TV commentator and daughter of Senator John McCain, that half of American women agree with her “pro-life” stance. In a […] Read more »