It isn’t unusual for individuals, organizations, or even political parties to make mistakes, but it is unusual, certainly in Washington, to see anyone own up to them. What is truly extraordinary is for any person or group to conduct, release, and publicize an exhaustive research project detailing what went wrong […] Read more »

If Nate Silver was the winner of last year’s presidential election, then Gallup was the loser. The long-time leader in polling consistently showed Mitt Romney ahead, sometimes by a decisive margin. And then President Barack Obama won by 3.9 points—5 points off of Gallup’s final margin. In response, Gallup launched […] Read more »

We all know that Gallup screwed the pooch in the 2012 presidential election. It had Mitt Romney leading through most of October and in its final poll by a point – a 5pt error. … It’s worth the time, though, to point out, as I have and Gallup did on […] Read more »

The Gallup Poll’s misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organization’s top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections. Flanked […] Read more »