In early fall 2020, KFF in collaboration with the Cook Political Report conducted the Sun Belt Voices Project which included interviews with a random sample of 3,479 registered voters in three Sun Belt states (1,298 in Arizona, 1,009 in Florida, and 1,172 in North Carolina). … Now, more than nine […] Read more »
Black and Hispanic Americans See Their Origins as Central to Who They Are, Less So for White Adults
Most Americans say they are very familiar with their roots, but the strength of their attachment to them varies by race and Hispanic origin, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted to explore themes of self-identity ahead of last year’s U.S. decennial census. Black and Hispanic adults were more […] Read more »
Trump-Biden Was Worst Presidential Polling Miss in 40 Years, Panel Says
Public opinion surveys ahead of the 2020 presidential election were the most inaccurate in 40 years, according to an expert panel convened by the main trade group for pollsters, which said its work hadn’t yet pointed to a way to correct the error. In the aggregate, the panel said, polls […] Read more »
Assessing AP VoteCast 2020
… AP VoteCast 2020 was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal, and The Associated Press. The 2020 election was the first time VoteCast was used for a presidential race. Amid a pandemic, record turnout, […] Read more »
2020 Polling Retrospective
Since 2018 Data for Progress has helped prove the case for progressive policy with its best-in-class polling, while being on the forefront of innovative survey techniques. In the spirit of innovation, this report is the first of a series of analyses to rigorously assess polling’s successes and failures over the […] Read more »
Can Democrats fix their big 2020 polling errors? A lot depends on it.
Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, a persistent media story-line held that Democrats were out of touch with the true sentiments of a certain type of economically populist white voter, particularly those concentrated in the industrial Midwest. Coming after Trump shattered the “blue wall” states in 2016, his grip on his non-college […] Read more »