Two new polls this week attempt to quantify the public’s feelings for the Common Core State Standards. The K-12 benchmarks in English and math were little known this time last year. But they’ve since become the subject of a high-profile political fight. Now a majority of the public opposes them. […] Read more »
The mythical swing voter
… The short story is much of the apparent changes in public opinion are actually changes in patterns of nonresponse: When it looked like Romney jumped in popularity, what was really happening was that disaffected Democrats were not responding to the survey while resurgent Republicans were more likely to respond. […] Read more »
Are Bad Pollsters Copying Good Pollsters?
The political polling industry is a mess. Fewer and fewer people are willing to respond to telephone surveys, particularly automated ones, and the costs of live interviews are climbing ever higher. Meanwhile, polls have gained prominence in the political media (FiveThirtyEight itself is a part of this trend), and the […] Read more »
Public Divided on Feds Requiring Reduction of Greenhouse Gases
An announcement this week from an environmental group claims that “about 80 percent of people in both red and blue districts believe that global warming is real and that we should be doing more to fight it.” Other recent polls by Quinnipiac, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and ABC/Washington Post also claim […] Read more »
Racial Voting Lines In Hawaii Senate Primary Leave Pollsters Mostly Clueless
I don’t know who is going to win Saturday’s special Democratic Senate primary between Sen. Brian Schatz and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa — and it’s not just because there’s a lot going on in Hawaii right now (an earthquake rattled Hawaii on Thursday, and two tropical storms are on course to […] Read more »
Yes, Alaska Is Hard to Poll. So Is Everywhere Else.
Alaska is notorious for being difficult to poll. It’s a common refrain, common enough that you could be forgiven for not stopping to wonder why. But it’s not entirely clear why the state should pose such difficulties. CONT. Josh Katz, New York Times Read more »