I recently wrote a piece that argued there is an anti-winner bias in polling. For races expected to be competitive, I noted that the predicted poll margin underestimated the actual vote share for the winner. I’ve thought more about this issue and talked with some people about it (including the […] Read more »
What if election polls are biased against winners?
It seems like every election, some observers suggest that the polls are biased against one party. They’re often wrong. In 2012, many thought the polls were biased against Republicans, but they ended up being biased against Democrats. In 2014, many argued that the polls could be biased against Democrats, but […] Read more »
Hollywood Tracks Social Media Chatter to Target Hit Films
… To help studio marketers get back ahead of their customers, United Talent Agency and Rentrak, an entertainment data company, are introducing a service called PreAct. It joins an array of Hollywood upstarts peddling “social listening,” a growing field that uses algorithms to slice and dice chatter on social media. […] Read more »
Microsoft Makes Its Audience Polling Service Bing Pulse Available To Anyone
Microsoft is expanding its audience polling tool Bing Pulse today — Josh Gottheimer, general manager of corporate strategy, told me that it’s moving from a model of one-off partnerships to self-service. So basically anyone can now use Bing Pulse at their events and meetings. CONT. Anthony Ha, TechCrunch Read more »
Exploring Online Non-Probability Sampling
SurveyMonkey … today announced plans to examine non-probability sampling and potential frameworks for measurement and evaluation with Westat, an employee-owned research corporation, and Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization. Results from the collaboration will be made publicly available. CONT. SurveyMonkey via PR Newswire Read more »
Did the GOP make inroads with the Latino vote?
The conservative National Review declared, “Republicans made historic gains across the country on [election day], including significant progress with minority voters.” The Houston Chronicle and Fox News Latino similarly pronounced Latino voters having a large voting preference for Republicans in Texas, Kansas, and Georgia. But these claims are based on […] Read more »