The only exit poll from California’s recall election showed Mr. Newsom winning with an unusual coalition. In a departure from nearly every recent election, longstanding racial and ethnic divides between white voters and voters of color seemed to vanish. … But the actual results of the recall election tell a […] Read more »
CNN launches new polling methodology
The landscape of political polling is changing, and so too is the way CNN carries out its polls. Beginning with Friday’s newly released CNN poll conducted by SSRS, the network is implementing a new methodology for measuring public opinion. The new approach relies on both online and telephone interviews, allowing […] Read more »
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… Readers are constantly challenged to be discriminating when considering the information presented to them. That includes our own polling, certainly. But it is critical to consider who is polling on a subject and why they’re asking when a poll is sourced to a third-party group. Objective polling can illuminate […] Read more »
Pollsters confront tough survey landscape after 2020 flubs
Academic and nonpartisan pollsters surveying voters ahead of key election contests this year are trying new technology and massaging their existing methodology in hopes of correcting the errors that led them to underestimate Donald Trump’s level of support in the 2020 election. But those pollsters on the front lines today […] Read more »
Chuck ToddCast: What the NBC/WSJ poll got wrong in 2020 and what we’re doing to fix it
After the election, the bipartisan team of pollsters who conduct the national NBC News poll evaluated the poll and its 10,000 interviews and compared the results with actual voters from states’ voter files. Pollsters Bill McInturff, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and Jeff Horwitt, Senior Vice President at Hart Research […] Read more »
What the NBC/WSJ poll got wrong in 2020 — and what we are doing to fix it
Political polls of all stripes swung and missed in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, according to a recent American Association for Public Opinion Research report, the cumulative error was the largest in 40 years. That includes the performance of our national NBC News/Wall Street Journal, which showed Joe Biden […] Read more »