More and more Americans vote for the same party up and down the ballot these days. But some people still split their tickets. Who? Where? Well, we can use our forecast data to try to answer that. There are 22 states holding multiple statewide races this year — meaning a […] Read more »
Democratic Embrace of Diverse Candidates Collides With Barbed Politics of Trump Era
Democratic nominees for governor include three African-Americans, two of them in the old Confederacy, a prospect that not long ago would have been unthinkable. Record numbers of women are competing in congressional races. Elsewhere, Muslims, gays, lesbians and transgender people will be on the ballot for high-profile offices. That diverse […] Read more »
Truth, significance & probability in polling
Margin of error is simultaneously the most under- and most over-used concept in polling, in part because so many people don’t really understand it. A Democratic gubernatorial primary survey in Maryland provides an opportunity to re-engage with these issues. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Give positive a chance
Consultants are trained by experience, and by mentors, to go negative. There are few more powerful norms among political professionals. When in trouble, when in doubt — whenever, really — attack. … But going negative can be the wrong move. Witness Donna Edwards’s Maryland Senate campaign. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump score big wins in Northeast primaries
… Results from the CBS News exit polls in Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania show Trump may be broadening his support in the Republican primaries. He still draws stronger support from less well-educated voters, men, and older voters, but he is now showing strength among a more diverse range of Republican […] Read more »
Trump Cruises the I-95 Primaries; Clinton Pads her Delegate Lead
Donald Trump cruised through the I-95 primaries, pulling economic discontent, his outsider status and pushback against other groups into a yet-more potent political package. In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton relied on her customary strengths – plus a boost from perceived inevitability – to pad her delegate lead. CONT. Gary […] Read more »