Rural Hispanic voters — like white rural voters — shifted toward Trump

… My county-by-county comparison of election results in 2016 and 2012, drawn from data available at CNN.com, Politico.com, PBS.org and other sites, shows that rural white and rural Hispanic voters have a lot in common. Or to put it another way, the election of 2016 revealed an urban/rural divide that […] Read more »

Why identity politics couldn’t clinch a Clinton win

Many Democrats have believed that a coalition of minorities, millennials and single women would help create a new Democratic majority for years to come. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was counting on it. But the “rising American electorate,” as it’s called, failed to carry Clinton across the finish line. It didn’t […] Read more »

In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research.

What can we learn about the 2016 election from the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll (about which more below)? Two things stand out. On Nov. 8, Latino turnout was up significantly compared with 2012. And Latinos gave a substantial share of their votes — we estimate 79 percent — to […] Read more »

Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls

In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to […] Read more »

The Clinton Loss

Even though Hillary Clinton is likely the popular vote winner nationally, Clinton did NOT get what she needed with minorities, leaving millions of votes on the table with African-Americans and Hispanics who were there four years ago for President Obama’s re-election. And, President-elect Donald Trump actually did marginally worse with […] Read more »