How 2020 may reconfigure politics in the Southwest

For years, the Southwest shimmered like a mirage to Democrats thirsting for a political breakthrough in the desert. Since 2004, steady gains have allowed them to establish a clear upper hand in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. But, until recently, they had been frustrated by their inability to extend those […] Read more »

Most Cuban American voters identify as Republican in 2020

Unlike other Hispanic registered voters in the United States, most Cuban Americans identify as Republican – a pattern that could have electoral implications as President Donald Trump seeks to recapture the important swing state of Florida this year. Nationwide, 58% of Cuban registered voters say they affiliate with or lean […] Read more »

Biden holds sizable lead over Trump among Latino voters in NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll

Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 62 percent to 26 percent among Latino registered voters nationally, but his lead trails Hillary Clinton’s advantage with this voting bloc at this same stage in 2016, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll released Sunday. Biden is seen by the poll’s […] Read more »

This Is How Biden Should Approach the Latino Vote

… There’s a winning message Mr. Biden and his party can deliver that resonates with most Hispanics no matter how they conceptualize the group’s racial identity. The key is to link racism and class conflict. The pivot we recommend was also the most convincing message we tested among whites and […] Read more »

Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters

Recent polling shows that President Trump is improving his standing among Latino voters in the presidential race, particularly in Florida. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends among Latinos. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest could be […] Read more »