A recent poll finding most Americans don’t care about this year’s World Cup says more about polling challenges than it does about interest in the global soccer tournament. An Ipsos/Reuters poll this month said 66 percent of Americans don’t plan to follow the World Cup this June and July in […] Read more »
The GOP has a demographic problem, and it looks like it could get even worse
… The math isn’t complicated. Winning 27 percent of the Hispanic vote and six percent of the African American vote — as Romney did in 2012 — makes it hard to win a majority of the overall vote when those groups represent 10 percent and 13 percent of the electorate, […] Read more »
Why immigration reform isn’t the answer to Republicans’ demographic woes
We reported on Tuesday about the major demographic problem facing Republicans. So, how can the GOP start winning larger shares of non-white voters? Reforming the immigration system might not be the answer. Why not? Because reforming the nation’s immigration laws could very well create a whole bunch of new Democrats, […] Read more »
The 2014 House Elections and Comprehensive Immigration Reform Revisited
From the perspective of most Latino voters, the actions of the House Republicans have made a bad situation worse. House Republicans will bear the blunt of the blame if comprehensive immigration reform does not pass. Their dithering also creates an opportunity for President Obama to take administrative action and in […] Read more »
Party Paranoia Could Destroy Hopes of Immigration Reform
Leading up to last year’s Senate debate and the eventual passage of comprehensive immigration reform, GOP Senate leaders and party strategists were privately arguing that failure to do something real on immigration reform, while not necessary to capturing a majority in 2014, was extremely important for 2016. … In the […] Read more »
The close results of recent presidential elections reflect the emergence of a highly divided and partisan electorate
Election forecasters generally have a short-term time perspective and that is perfectly understandable. We are concerned with predicting the outcome of one election at a time. In making our forecasts, we therefore focus on factors that can contribute to an accurate prediction of each party’s share of the vote in […] Read more »