… The math isn’t complicated. Winning 27 percent of the Hispanic vote and six percent of the African American vote — as Romney did in 2012 — makes it hard to win a majority of the overall vote when those groups represent 10 percent and 13 percent of the electorate, respectively. If Hispanics grow to 20 percent of the electorate by 2024 or 2028 and the Republican presidential nominee performs roughly equivalent to Romney’s 2012 showing, it will be impossible — or damn close to impossible — for that GOP nominee to win a national majority.
And, it’s not just the raw numbers that should concern Republicans. It’s where the younger-than-20 minority populations live that could prove politically problematic going forward. CONT.
Chris Cillizza, Washington Post