Key Points• The reelection victories of three long-serving senators illustrate some of the nation’s political shifts.• Despite a well-funded Democratic challenge, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) held on in large part because of the lack of ticket splitting in his red state.• As of this election, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell […] Read more »
On the Trail, Again
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the general election cycle is in full swing. And, we’re taking on two of the most watched states in the presidential contest – Arizona and North Carolina. Our expert team breaks down the latest NBC News/Marist Polls of these two states. Is Biden […] Read more »
Fighting the Last Polling War
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team shares the findings of a new NBC News/Marist Poll study which debunks the commonly held claim that weighting 2016 battleground state polls by education would have improved their accuracy. The Poll Hub team explains how an analysis of the 2019 gubernatorial […] Read more »
Here’s how NBC News is working to improve its state polling in 2020
In 2016, the polls were more right than wrong. The final national surveys had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump ahead by an average of 3 points; Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. But some state polling missed the mark badly, especially in Midwest and Rust […] Read more »
What a Surge in Absentee Ballots Means for November 2020
The uncertainty caused by COVID-19 has resulted in a record number of people requesting to vote-by-mail. While increased access to mail ballots will stem the spread of the disease, waiting for ballots to arrive will delay the final result. Kentucky and New York are among the states that hosted primaries […] Read more »
Democrats are making big gains in the suburbs. Here’s why that may not be enough to beat Trump.
Democrats are rightfully ecstatic that they won two of the three 2019 elections for governor in deep red Southern states, overcoming relentless campaign visits by President Donald Trump. … The continued migration of highly college-educated suburbs away from Republicans in the Trump era is welcome news for Democrats. The Kentucky […] Read more »