The prospects remain very tough for Democrats to hold onto their majority in the Senate, but there is a new scenario emerging—albeit still unlikely—that is turning the majority math a bit on its head. As I have said previously, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take the […] Read more »
Senate Forecasts Aren’t Obvious. Just Take a Look at Kansas.
Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians. But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s […] Read more »
Kansas Surprise: Orman Leads Roberts by 10 in NBC/Marist Poll
Independent candidate Greg Orman is leading incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas by 10 points, while Democrats have a slim lead in North Carolina’s contest and both candidates are in a dead heat in Iowa’s Senate race, new NBC News/Marist polls find. CONT. Carrie Dann, NBC News Read more »
Kansas: GOP Has Numbers Advantage, but Support Drops
Kansas has emerged as an unlikely battleground state in the 2014 midterm election, with two longtime Republican fixtures, U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts and Gov. Sam Brownback, facing competitive races. These races threaten to sweep the GOP out of two of the state’s most prominent positions. Adding to the element of […] Read more »
Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky
If you’ve revisited our Senate forecast landing page, you may have noticed something a little different. The probability distribution showing how many Senate seats the Republicans might end up with is no longer a nice bell-shape-type curve. Instead, it has a kink. What’s going on here? Why are Republicans more […] Read more »
Pat Roberts is the Most Vulnerable Republican Senator in the Country
Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts survived a competitive Republican primary but it looks like his toughest race is still to come. Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race on Wednesday leaving independent Greg Orman as the senator’s main challenger and completely changing the math of the race. A spectacular confluence […] Read more »