Senate Forecasts Aren’t Obvious. Just Take a Look at Kansas.

Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians. But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s […] Read more »

Kansas: GOP Has Numbers Advantage, but Support Drops

Kansas has emerged as an unlikely battleground state in the 2014 midterm election, with two longtime Republican fixtures, U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts and Gov. Sam Brownback, facing competitive races. These races threaten to sweep the GOP out of two of the state’s most prominent positions. Adding to the element of […] Read more »

Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky

If you’ve revisited our Senate forecast landing page, you may have noticed something a little different. The probability distribution showing how many Senate seats the Republicans might end up with is no longer a nice bell-shape-type curve. Instead, it has a kink. What’s going on here? Why are Republicans more […] Read more »