ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire on “This Week.” ABC News ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos Read more »
Jeb Bush’s Image Among Republicans Deteriorates
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s image among Republicans has steadily worsened over the past 5 ½ months. His current net favorable rating of -1 (44% favorable, 45% unfavorable) among Republicans is significantly lower than his +27 (54% favorable, 27% unfavorable) rating in mid-July. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
Trump, Cruz, and a Cage Fight
… One way of looking at the GOP nomination fight is to think of three lanes or brackets: a populist lane—obviously dominated by Trump—a conservative lane, and a conventional/moderate lane (the libertarian lane that Rand Paul was banking on failed to emerge). CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
The Fifth Republican Debate Ends In A Nine-Way Draw
The Republican debate in Las Vegas on Tuesday night had the feeling of a soccer match that ended in a nil-nil draw. It was a tactical and defensively minded affair, full of technically competent but predictable performances. The only candidates who broke form were those who didn’t have much to […] Read more »
New Hampshire Will Weed Republican Field
The New Hampshire presidential primary vote usually breaks late. This time, not unusually, it will break a few candidates. … Voters can choose either party’s primary in New Hampshire, and knowledgeable Republicans suggest that a heavy influx of independents could help push a mainstream conservative to the top spot. There […] Read more »