Paul Whiteley, University of Essex The European elections were a triumph for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which took 32% of the vote. The night was a real success for the Liberal Democrats and Greens as well, very disappointing for Labour and the Change UK party and a disaster for the […] Read more »
The radical right’s rise in Europe isn’t fueled by economic grievances
Will populist parties gain ground during this week’s European Parliament elections? Radical right-wing parties are polling well, but how will they fare now that the economy is picking up in Europe? Their success in the elections is a test of the conventional wisdom that economic crisis breeds radical politics. Our […] Read more »
Why we’re pressing pause on political polling at the Herald and the Age
In the wash-up from last Saturday’s federal election questions are rightly being asked about how all the major public polling companies failed to predict the Morrison government’s victory. … But it’s not just the pollsters who need to reflect on their approach in the wake of this election – the […] Read more »
Poll failure, again
The big news in polling this week: the Australian election! In our Netflix world, I’ve become a fan of Australian TV, but don’t recall anything from down under being big news in the U.S. since 2006, when “Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin was allegedly killed by a stingray that stabbed him […] Read more »
Australia: Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account
If Labor had won on Saturday, Bill Shorten would have been the least popular party leader ever elected prime minister, according to election data. Lukas Coch/AAP Sarah Cameron, University of Sydney and Ian McAllister, Australian National University Polls had predicted a narrow win for Labor in this election, so what […] Read more »
The mathematics does not lie: why polling got the Australian election wrong
… Since the election was called, there were 16 polls that published two-party preferred results ahead of Saturday’s vote. Every single one of them predicted the LNP winning 48% or 49% of the two-party preferred vote, with Labor winning 51% or 52%. These polls were central to the public’s perception […] Read more »