We conducted a large, mostly cell phone survey with an oversample of Republicans in the 2022 battleground for the U.S. Senate, governorships, and House, and it is painfully clear Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy know their party. The Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of […] Read more »
Why Americans’ support for democratic values may not protect democracy in practice
There has been widespread concern about the potential for democratic decline in the United States in the wake of the contested 2020 presidential election. Using new polling data, we find that 1) the belief that there was fraud in the 2020 election is associated with modestly lower support among Americans […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren’s Book Shows She Has No Idea Why Her Campaign Failed
The 2020 Democratic primary took place in a disorienting atmosphere. The 2016 election, in which the supposedly unelectable candidate had defeated the supposedly safe one, seemed to overturn all the conventional assumptions about the electorate, and many activists and candidates went into the next election as if those assumptions weren’t […] Read more »
Yes, Sexism Really Did Doom the Warren Campaign
Elizabeth Warren has a new memoir out that is driving some interesting discussion this weekend. Unfortunately, some in the pundit world are using it to draw false conclusions in support of positions that mischaracterize both the Democratic base and the general electorate. Those misconceptions need correction. … As far as […] Read more »
Liz Cheney is learning the GOP equals Trumpism
The movement to replace Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney in the House Republican leadership after she voted to impeach former President Donald Trump shouldn’t come as a surprise. And the fact that her potential replacement could be the relatively moderate New York Rep. Elise Stefanik should be even less shocking. The […] Read more »
The Cheney Conundrum and the Midterms
The story of Liz Cheney’s soon-to-be ouster from party leadership is about many things. First and foremost, of course, it’s about Donald Trump and his iron grip on the party. It’s also about history and dynasty. … We aren’t just witnessing the end of Cheney’s time in leadership; we are […] Read more »