ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire on “This Week.” ABC News ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos Read more »
Fox News Poll: Cruz, Trump remain top GOP picks in Iowa
Ted Cruz continues to hold an edge over Donald Trump in the GOP nomination race in Iowa, according to the latest Fox News poll of likely Republican caucus-goers. CONT. Dana Blanton, Fox News Read more »
The predictive value of GOP presidential polls
… Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach has suggestive implications about who is likely to be the […] Read more »
To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse Nationally
… Just as during the 2012 general election, state polls and national polls disagree. And our advice this year is the same as it was then: Trust the state polls. In fact, there’s evidence the national polls may be a negative indicator once you control for the state-level survey results. […] Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
Trump’s fans are excited to rally — but they’re not sure they’ll show up to vote
… Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they […] Read more »