Based on what most of us would have thought possible a year or two ago, the election of Donald Trump was one of the most shocking events in American political history. But it shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise based on the polls — at least if you […] Read more »
David Plouffe: What I Got Wrong About the Election
Like many people around the world, I expected a comfortable Hillary Clinton victory on Tuesday. … My confidence was not partisan spin. It was based on public data, voting history and some sense of the Clinton campaign’s own models. I played with various state scenarios, and even in the most […] Read more »
Clinton’s Substantial Popular-Vote Win
Hillary Clinton didn’t just win the popular vote. She won it by a substantial margin. By the time all the ballots are counted, she seems likely to be ahead by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points, according to my Times colleague Nate Cohn. She will […] Read more »
Trump Victory Surprises Americans; 4 in 10 Afraid
Americans on both sides of the 2016 presidential race are reacting strongly to Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday: 80% of Trump voters say they are “excited,” while 76% of Hillary Clinton voters say they are “afraid.” A large majority (75%) share one reaction: surprise. CONT. Jim Norman, Gallup Read more »
In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research.
What can we learn about the 2016 election from the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll (about which more below)? Two things stand out. On Nov. 8, Latino turnout was up significantly compared with 2012. And Latinos gave a substantial share of their votes — we estimate 79 percent — to […] Read more »
Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls
In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to […] Read more »