Before asking how Donald Trump won the election, it’s necessary to ask how he even stayed close. There were numerous occasions when it seemed that he’d gone too far, and done or said something that would finish him off. The answer to that question can be found in some of […] Read more »
Epic fail: How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts
… While pollsters correctly gauged the sentiment of most slices of the electorate, they underestimated Mr Trump’s appeal to working-class whites. Although it was clear that he would run up the score with these voters, he managed to exceed even pollsters’ rosy expectations for him: projected to win them by […] Read more »
2016 was an ordinary election, not a realignment
Political scientists will be analyzing the bases of Donald Trump’s dramatic victory for a very long time. So far, the evidence points toward a toxic brew of economic and cultural anxiety, populism, racial resentment, sexism and authoritarianism, among other factors. But from a broader perspective, the search for specific explanations […] Read more »
How the Rustbelt Paved Trump’s Road to Victory
Two Americas collided in the presidential race and the side that was genuinely passionate about its champion walked away the narrow winner. Donald Trump, the billionaire populist, mobilized ardent support from the groups most uneasy about the economic, cultural, and demographic trends remaking America. Hillary Clinton, in turn, posted solid, […] Read more »
The Clinton Loss
Even though Hillary Clinton is likely the popular vote winner nationally, Clinton did NOT get what she needed with minorities, leaving millions of votes on the table with African-Americans and Hispanics who were there four years ago for President Obama’s re-election. And, President-elect Donald Trump actually did marginally worse with […] Read more »
Deciphering election polling, from algorithms and youth votes to the Electoral College
The outcome of the 2016 general election in the United States was momentous and surprising. Yet some commentaries seem to suggest that means we need to rethink our basic understandings of voters and elections. I disagree, albeit gently, with that kind of hyperbole. Here’s why. CONT. Laura Stoker, Berkeley Read more »