Before diving into observations about the last Tuesday’s results, as a pollster, I feel compelled to write this first post-election column about the survey research misses. First, put the errors in perspective. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Americans Roll the Dice On Trump
If there is a contradiction in Tuesday’s presidential-election results, it’s that Americans desperately wanted change even as they felt things seemed to be changing too fast. Donald Trump didn’t get elected because voters saw him as a safe choice. When exit polls asked whether they felt Trump and Hillary Clinton […] Read more »
The Story of the Suburbs
The media has paid a lot of attention throughout the campaign and afterward on rural and working-class white America. Not nearly as much attention has been spent on suburban America, whose college-educated white voters (especially white women) were supposed to provide Hillary Clinton a bulwark to big losses among the […] Read more »
Anyone for a second helping of crow?
… In most elections, the responses to survey questions about candidate qualities and vote preference predict the outcome. But this year was different. What I didn’t understand, of course, was that enough voters in just the right combination of states were so frustrated and angry with the status quo that […] Read more »
Why did pollsters like me fail to predict Trump’s victory?
America is being shaped irreversibly by a growing new majority of millennials, racial minorities, immigrants and secular people. So how did the presidential election produce such a reactionary result, surprising all the pollsters, including me? “Shy” Tories and Brexiters apparently upended Britain. Did “shy” Trump voters upend America? To understand […] Read more »
Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump
In Florida, Cubans were about twice as likely as non-Cuban Latinos to vote for Donald Trump. More than half (54%) supported the Republican president-elect, compared with about a quarter (26%) of non-Cuban Latinos, according to National Election Pool exit poll data. CONT. Pew Read more »