We are all sick and tired of 2016 already, of course, but we are going to have to deal with it, for the next two years, with the possible exception of major holidays. Part of this conversation will be the ceaseless trickle trickle trickle of new polls about 2016, which, […] Read more »
The Demise of the White Democratic Voter
… There is an ongoing debate among politicians, political scientists and partisans of both parties over the dismal support of Democratic candidates among whites. Does it result from ideological differences, racial animosity or a perception among many whites that they are excluded from a coalition of minorities, the poor, single […] Read more »
Latino Decisions: What 2014 Taught Us
Results from Latino Decisions’ election eve poll are out. So are the media’s national exit polls. And, of course, in almost every state and district we now have the final election returns. What did we learn from the 2014 midterms? Herewith, LD’s bullet-pointed list of the 8 major takeaways from […] Read more »
Tuesday and What It Tells Us About 2016
The 2014 election was a major defeat of Democrats – a wave election that will have long-term consequences. It was produced by the Republicans who were energized by nationalizing the election around Barack Obama and it was also produced by the President’s failure to engage with an economic narrative and […] Read more »
A Test of Presidential Timber
Four potential Republican candidates for president ran into a nasty case of mode effects Tuesday. The results, for them, were not pretty. The term “mode effects” refers to differing results when surveys are done different ways. In this case it’s the difference between a printed ballot – Tuesday’s national exit […] Read more »
What 2014 Elections Can Tell Us About the 2016 Ones: Not So Much
America has again embraced our long history of electoral overreaction. While it’s true that Republicans won a major victory at the polls, the results tell us far less about future elections than some commentary has suggested. … Historically, midterm results, which are typically unfavorable to the president’s party, tell us […] Read more »