Hillary Clinton Viewed Unfavorably by Majority of NYers for First Time Ever

Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by more New Yorkers (51 percent) than those who have a favorable view of her (46 percent) for the first time ever, down from 56-40 percent positive in July, according to a new Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today. While […] Read more »

Why Hillary Clinton needs the gender gap

… Since 1980, men have always voted more Republican than women in presidential races — but never more so than that year. … But the bigger question, of course, is how that gender gap will be affected if there is actually a woman on the ticket — or, quite possibly, […] Read more »

Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.

… Even setting aside Barack Obama’s unique potential to appeal to African American voters as a historic racial figure, this frequent comparison of Senator Obama in 2007 and Senator Sanders in 2015 is deeply flawed. Just looking at the data from eight years ago shows how much better positioned Barack […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop

It’s the candidates who play the long game, and play by the establishment’s rules, who usually win presidential nominations. … The short run is different. The short run can be crazy. Feedback loops can produce self-reinforcing (but usually temporary) booms and busts of support. … Candidates can just as easily […] Read more »