… For the past 10 years, we have researched the connection between terrorist threat and public opinion. In our book, “Democracy at Risk,” and in our more recent work, we argue that public attitudes and evaluations shift in at least three politically relevant ways when terrorist threat is more prominent […] Read more »
The Big Issues Of The 2016 Campaign
With less than a year to go before the election, FiveThirtyEight’s staff members took a detailed look at seven issues we cover regularly, examining the positions of the presidential candidates and suggesting developments likely to arise before the voting takes place. CONT. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Where Does The 2016 Race Stand Post-Paris?
In the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris there’s been a lot of chatter here in DC about their impact on the 2016 elections. Will the “outsiders” be pushed out as voters flock to more traditional and experienced politicians? Will terrorism and security, two issues that have fallen […] Read more »
Democrats 2016: Clinton’s Cloak of Inevitability
Every Republican debate appears consequential because of the large number of candidates, the changing cast of characters on stage, and the clashes among controversial colorful contenders on hot-button topics. The same cannot be said on the Democratic side. There just isn’t much drama left in the Democrats’ search for a […] Read more »
Paris Attacks Will Keep Obama and Democrats Playing Defense
I say it repeatedly: Events matter. And for President Barack Obama, the terror attacks in Paris present a no-win political situation, at least until other, compelling news changes the subject. That is not to say the president, the Democratic Party or the likely Democratic 2016 nominee, Hillary Rodham Clinton, will […] Read more »
Voters Laud Clinton’s ‘Steel’ But Ask: Is She Likable Enough?
They say she’s tough. She’s got a “spine of steel” and “balls,” and her experience can’t be discounted. But it’s just not that easy to like Hillary Rodham Clinton. In a pair of focus groups in Columbus, Ohio on Monday night, general election voters from across the political spectrum praised […] Read more »