After very narrowly winning Iowa and losing New Hampshire in a blowout, Hillary Clinton has moved on to her “firewall” — the more diverse states that came after the lily-white leadoff contests. Clinton’s wall held in its first test in Nevada, but her modest margin of victory isn’t going to […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Nevada Victory Suggests She Still Has Edge Nationally
Hillary Clinton’s victory in the Nevada caucus on Saturday suggests that her national advantage, although diminished, has survived a big loss in New Hampshire and a tight race in Iowa. Nevada is fairly representative of the national electorate, and it’s a state where Bernie Sanders would be expected to fare […] Read more »
Nevada Entrance Poll Results: How Clinton Won
Hillary Clinton eked out a tight win in Nevada by relying on key groups that supported her in prior contests – particularly women and older voters. Clinton took 71 percent of the vote among caucus-goers age 65 and older, and 55 percent of female voters. She also won six-in-10 voters […] Read more »
How to Watch the Contests in Nevada and South Carolina
After two contests in mostly white and rural Iowa and New Hampshire, the presidential primaries finally turn today to contests that are more representative of the national electorate. For the Democrats, Nevada is the first contest with a meaningful nonwhite and urban population. South Carolina offers an ideologically balanced contest […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire
… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and […] Read more »
New poll shows that black voters really aren’t ‘Feeling the Bern’
Bernie Sanders has had strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, but he is facing an important challenge: appealing to minority voters. … Our new research confirms what many Sanders supporters have feared: Black voters have substantially more favorable feelings about his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Our data are unusual: a […] Read more »