Donald Trump begins the general-election phase of the campaign facing the prospect of a near-historic blowout defeat. And pollsters think he might be so far in the hole that he can’t dig himself out. He’s trailing Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders by margins not seen in a generation. CONT. […] Read more »
Clinton Opens at 70% Against Trump
… Trump is trailing models of where the generic Republican should be at the start of the election. … He is going to start out at about 30% to win the election where the generic Republican versus the generic Democrat should be about 47% (or you could say Clinton is […] Read more »
Why is Hillary Clinton doing worse among whites now than in 2008? Racial attitudes.
… The graph below shows that Clinton’s average share of the white vote in 2016 has been 10 points lower than it was against Barack Obama in the states that conducted exit polls in both election years. Meanwhile, her support among blacks is 60 points higher. The dramatic turnaround in […] Read more »
At the starting gate: Clinton leads Trump by double-digits
As Donald Trump captures the mantle of presumptive Republican nominee, a new poll finds he begins his general election campaign well behind Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. CONT. Tom LoBianco & Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »
The Great Trump Reshuffle
A general election that pits Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump will produce a decisively more affluent and better educated Democratic presidential electorate and a decidedly less affluent and less educated Republican one than in any previous election going back as far as 1976. … A Trump versus Clinton contest will […] Read more »
The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail
“The whole framework of the presidency is getting out of hand. It’s come to the point where you almost can’t run unless you can cause people to salivate and whip on each other with big sticks. You almost have to be a rock star to get the kind of fever […] Read more »