… Preliminary county-level results show how the average margins in both urban and suburban counties were friendlier to Biden than they had been to Hillary Clinton four years ago, even as rural votes shifted more to the right. That suburban shift was critical: It is estimated that nearly half of […] Read more »
The political winds in the U.S. are swirling
Democrats (and pollsters) predicted a mighty gust blowing the country left this year, in response to the rightward gale that swept President Trump into office. Instead of a corresponding tempest, however, the country barely puffed just enough in a few places to lift Joe Biden up. CONT. Tim Meko, Joe […] Read more »
It’s Not Just Suburban Women. A Lot of Groups Have Turned Against Trump.
By now, you’ve probably heard that Donald J. Trump has a problem with women. Not just suburban women, but American women across age, race or education — a pattern that shows up in every poll. But the gender gap may not be as much about President Trump as many people […] Read more »
There’s no such thing as a shy Trump voter
Trump voters are not liars. As a Democratic pollster and campaign strategist, I feel strange typing these words. But it is required to debunk the “shy Trump voter” myth. The shy Trump voter theory proliferates in political circles these days. This theory suggests that polls are failing to measure President […] Read more »
Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?
… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
… In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. … This year, both men […] Read more »